Stop Forecasting from the Target. Start Forecasting from the Business.
There’s a particular kind of investor meeting where a founder presents a revenue forecast and the room goes quiet in the wrong way.
The numbers are ambitious but not unreasonable. The growth curve looks compelling. And then someone asks a question, “walk me through how you got to that Q3 number,” and the answer reveals that the model was built backward from a desired outcome rather than forward from the actual mechanics of the business.